Can VW overtake Tesla in the EV race?

The battle for global battery electric vehicle (BEV) leadership will intensify in 2023. Battery prices remain critical to cost competitiveness, with automakers chasing the same commodities simultaneously. Escalating EV battery costs and supply constraints could be the industry’s next bottleneck, according to a December 2022 Bloomberg Intelligence report. “This means there is only a two-horse race for BEV supremacy, with VW as the sole contender for Tesla’s crown,” says Michael Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Industry Analyst.

In the US, Tesla continues to dominate EV sales, accounting for 65.4% of the EV market, according to Experian’s Automotive Market Trend December 2022 report. However, that figure is on a steady downward trajectory, from 68.2% in 2021 and 79.4% in 2020. In Europe, it holds just 20%. However, this is still close to VW’s slight market lead of 21%. Meanwhile, their other automotive peers are lagging behind substantially.

Indeed, VW has had a taste of leadership since Q4 2020, when its brands—including Porsche and Audi—sold more EVs worldwide than Tesla, according to AlixPartners: 192,000 fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles Q4, compared to Tesla’s 181,000.