The combination of battery electric vehicles and advanced software technologies is creating a foundation for autonomous vehicles (AVs). While AI’s role in broader consumer acceptance is growing, its impact on AV development remains indirect.
Big numbers and plenty of hype continue to be thrown out around market growth, such as reports that the self-driving electric vehicle market size could be valued at US$5tr in 2031, with 36% compound annual growth. On the ground, Wayve’s recent record-breaking US$1.05bn investment to develop self-driving vehicle technology demonstrates the market’s perceived potential of AVs. This was the largest investment of all time in the UK market in an AI company.
At the same time, the reality is complicated, with the AV market being pulled in another direction. Consumer confidence in automated vehicles is fragile and might even in decline. Recent J.D. Power research found that confidence in fully automated, self-driving vehicles declined for a second consecutive year, by two points to 37 on a 100-point scale, making up a full five-point decline since 2021.
Delayed and cancelled AV projects, media reporting around accidents and incidents, and increasing regulatory scrutiny all contribute to a climate of uncertainty. Data privacy and questions about how self-driving cars will collect and utilise user information, is a growing concern. Pilot projects have encountered delays due to permit hurdles, further complicating the timeline for widespread AV adoption.
Bridging the hype gap
Part of the issue here lies with hype fatigue. It’s been more than ten years since the largest OEMs promised that autonomous technology would soon be able to drive more safely than a human. The picture painted here centred on enabling autonomous driving along the lines of the Society of Automotive Engineers’ Level 5—fully automated travel, without a safety driver or remote control, across the full physical range of vehicle traffic areas. In reality however, companies are already facing major technical and regulatory hurdles with autonomous driving at Level 4—fully automated driving on fixed routes in vehicles like local driverless taxis.
These big promises didn’t just set up unrealistic expectations; they also stoked fear and anxieties around autonomous cars have grown. Broadly speaking, people feel uneasy about fully autonomous cars. Players went ahead and unleashed machines that cannot be controlled or even assessed by humans in an environment that has been tailored to individual human transportation for a century or more. Street and traffic environments vary wildly across the globe. The road experience in a modern, new-build residential area of the 21st century differs wildly from the inner city streets of cities that have grown over centuries.
The automotive industry is providing a real-life case study in learning about how to manage this physical/digital convergenc
A major challenge to the entire AV project has its roots in public perception and acceptance, and the psychological barriers associated with self-driving vehicles. The concept of riding driverless public transit in dedicated spaces is one thing; trusting lives to machines in complex environments shared with pedestrians and vulnerable road users is another. Isolated but high-profile incidents involving self-driving cars have reinforced fears and further eroded the trust.
Trust means transparency
Building trust between drivers and technology is essential for the successful adoption of AVs. While features like adaptive cruise control are widely accepted, transitioning to higher levels of automation requires careful consideration of user experience and expectations. This gradual approach can help bridge the gap between current driver assistance systems and fully autonomous vehicles.
Drivers welcome automatic assistance systems like parking aids, lane departure warning systems, distance control or emergency braking assist that help to improve the driving experience. In many situations, technology can steer and regulate a car’s speed more safely than a human at the wheel.
Delayed and cancelled AV projects, media reporting around accidents and incidents, and increasing regulatory scrutiny all contribute to a climate of uncertainty
Building on these real-world experiences, the industry needs to do a better job of highlighting the very real potential of advanced autonomous vehicles—whether that’s providing improved and more flexible mobility for those in rural areas, or people with limited mobility, streamlining traffic in urban environments or providing a safety net around a future lack of skilled public transport workers. Data collection and sensors are already making journeys safer and everyone can instinctively understand the appeal of being able to travel longer distances without the tiring grind.
These types of points are either not being made, being made poorly or being lost in an emotionally charged discourse. It equally doesn’t help that consumer experience with self-driving is low- to non-existent; a ‘chicken and egg situation’ putting the brakes on acceptance and desirability. Research shows that whilst many automated safety features poll highly in terms of consumer favourability, far fewer consumers express any interest in self-driving, rating it as the least desirable of all advanced driver assistance systems.
Along with this, manufacturers must also create transparency around the ethics and responsibilities surrounding higher level AVs, opening up a discussion and answering questions around how and why their autonomous systems make decisions in real-world situations. Another fundamental prerequisite is to clarify the question of liability for accidents and damage. The technical and regulatory challenges that lie ahead need real acknowledgement and communicating with a voice of realism.
There is an overall need for transparency, engagement, and education. Companies need to invest in showcasing the potential benefits of the technology, challenge the ideas around the potential for industry and transport job losses, and offer tangible self-driving experiences, not just glossy videos.
The road ahead: a measured roadmap
The industry needs to focus on clear and achievable steps to build greater consumer engagement and confidence. This could include a real focus on promoting the safety benefits of existing driver assistance systems at SAE Levels 2 and 3 as a stepping stone towards a more autonomous future. The term ‘autonomous vehicle’ in itself is perhaps part of the problem, used as a catch-all term to describe a market covering a huge breadth of capabilities many of which consumers are happy with today. J.D. Power recently found that many consumers are not able to differentiate between lower levels of automation; the terms and technical definitions used by the industry to make the distinction between lower levels of automation regarding the transfer of control aren’t clear or landing effectively with consumers.
From a wider industry point of view there’s much to grapple with too. The path to AVs is a great example of a broader dynamic across many industries and consumer experiences that is seeing the digital and physical worlds become increasingly entwined. In the pursuit of higher levels of automation, the automotive industry is providing a real-life case study in learning about how to manage this physical/digital convergence. This means OEMs have a very different, broader remit and can’t simply focus on the nuts and bolts of the supply chain, manufacturing and distribution but also need to engage with the complexities of software development, machine learning, and data analytics.
Above all, the conclusion here is that building public trust and understanding, and focusing on change management are as important as the technological processes and challenges around AV development. SDVs and AI open many doors but also pose reputational and educational challenges both inside the ecosystem and with consumers.
About the author: Michael Fait is Developer and Head of Software Defined Vehicles at Thoughtworks